ࡱ> '` dbjbj{P{P 9::@j"""7778$8$H8,Dߞ88888.;.;.;^``````$hB">:@*;>>88fBABABA>(l8l8^BA>^BABAsc$^,,\8t8 R|7>p|0ߞVG?Gl\\G"zh.;<BA<|=.;.;.;@.;.;.;ߞ>>>>DDD+ DDD+64j"   Cobbetts LLP 58 Mosley Street Manchester M2 3HZ DX: 14374 Manchester 1 Tel: 0845 404 2404 Fax: 0845 404 2414 www.cobbetts.co.uk Background The carbon market potentially offers Greater Manchester, in particular its financial and professional services sector, with opportunities for growth and leadership. Wood Holmes Group Limited were commissioned to explore this agenda further and to make recommendations as to what those potential opportunities were, through a process of scenario planning, mapping and investigation. Context Setting The Report gave a detailed analysis of the broad understanding of what constitutes the carbon market and the historical background that underpins where we are and how we arrived at this point (see extract from Appendix 1 to Report). The Carbon Market - Cap and Trade The Carbon Market has developed on the back of the climate change agenda albeit in a fragmented fashion in different jurisdictions. The cap and trade schemes introduced after the Kyoto Protocol of 1997 use a carrot and stick approach to provide incentives for the reduction of carbon emissions. In essence a carbon asset is defined universally as being a measure of tonnes CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) which equates roughly to one metric tonne of carbon dioxide. Allowances and credits are measured in tCO2e. A cap and trade economic model works by way of a regulatory authority setting a cap on emissions of carbon this cap is subject to reduction year on year. Affected emitters within that jurisdiction are required to buy a number of allowances (the total of which are reducing year on year) in each phase of the operation of that scheme, forcing those affected to either: implement carbon emission reduction strategies to come within their purchased allowances; and/or purchase more allowances (or credits, where the scheme permits) to operate within the combined emissions allowances in their possession. At the end of each phase reconciliations take place with each entity having to demonstrate that they have sufficient allowances/credits to cover the emissions they actually made during that phase with the following consequences: (i) Fines are levied if actual emissions exceed held allowances/credits; and (ii) Results are generally published to demonstrate comparative performances publicly. This form of emissions regulation naturally generates supply and demand in the market place for those allowances (and credits) - hence the term the carbon market is born together with its associated terms emissions trading. There are essentially two tiers of emissions trading that were considered in the Report, these were: (1) primary market emissions trading - the purchase of allowances by affected emitters and the subsequent sale by those emitters of allowances to third parties; (2) secondary market emissions trading - the sub emitters market in project and allowance based allowances and credits as between intermediaries and, eventually, affected emitters. Carbon Reduction Commitment - Energy Efficiency Scheme - UK The UK CRC - Energy Efficiency Scheme, a cap and trade carbon emissions/energy efficiency scheme, commences to operate in the UK in April 2010. The first phase runs April 2010 through March 2013. If you are to be affected by this you need to understand the significant implications for your business/operations. The introduction of this scheme into the UK provides further UK-specific opportunities which the NW is potentially able to exploit. Uncertainty the future One of the key concerns expressed about this particular economic model, however, is the lack of certainty as to its future caused by political inconsistency around the globe together with a debate raging around the science behind the climate change claims being made. Notwithstanding these potential uncertainties there appears to be a general acceptance that some form of regulatory approach to climate change needs to be implemented on a global scale. Scenario Modelling The Report undertook three scenario planning exercises (together with a PESTEL analysis) across the spectrum of possibility to attempt to map how the carbon market would be affected: Emergence of a single carbon market post-Copenhagen by 2014 Key Implications carbon market grows exponentially on a global platform opportunities created for GM and nationally in terms of supply chain demand for compliance, trading, energy management, technology, R & D services. Continued fragmentation of carbon market Key Implications rate of growth of carbon market limited and uncertain limited opportunities for supply chain caused by continued uncertainty Focus away from carbon market and resultant requirements to adapt to changed circumstances. Key Implications carbon bubble fails to materialise, and the carbon market stagnates skills transfer opportunities created in adaptation roles in terms of energy efficiency, resource management and renewable energy. Strategic Implications and Recommendations for GM F & P Sector For various reasons set out in detail in the Report, GM should not, in the authors opinion, seek to pursue opportunities within the secondary carbon emissions trading market. Development of a carbon fund with the potential for this as an offering to mature into some form of emissions depository type financial institution if the market at that time permits Creating and growing a business eco-system in NW to meet demand for specialist services in this sector Growth in F & P supply chain offering - skills transfer opportunities. Raise awareness of this agenda throughout the NW as a means to stimulate demand.     Error! 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