What happens to Global Supply Chains if China and India get 100% tariffs imposed?

Dr Jonathan Owens, Senior Lecturer in Operations and Supply Chain Management at the University of Salford, comments:

“Imposing 100% tariffs on all imports from China and India would be an unprecedented move. If implemented long term, it could severely disrupt global supply chains, international trade, and geopolitics. Both China and India are integral players in global manufacturing and service ecosystems.

“China is the world’s largest exporter and manufacturing hub, with international trade reliant on its electronics, machinery, textiles, automotive parts, consumer goods, and more. It is also deeply integrated into the supply chains of many multinational firms, meaning the reliability and sustainability of these supply chains could be at risk. India is a global player in information technology (IT) services, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and raw materials such as chemicals.

“For goods that depend on long supply chains, businesses might initially try to absorb the increased supply chain and tariff costs. But if tariffs continue, these costs will almost certainly be passed down to consumers. This process could take a few months as companies reassess pricing strategies. Some businesses may look to mitigate the impact by finding new suppliers, redirecting supply chains, or shifting production to other regions. However, these changes take time to implement and stabilise and are usually medium- to long-term strategies. Few global alternatives can match China’s sheer scale or India’s IT knowledge and depth.

“For consumer goods, particularly electronics, automotive, digital, agricultural products, and clothing, the impact on prices could be felt relatively quickly, especially if tariffs significantly increase and are reciprocal as seen in a trade war. Larger or longer supply chains, where multiple tariffs are applied, can result in noticeable price increases for end consumers.

“The timeframe for tariffs and shipping cost increases to appear in global consumer prices depends on the industry. For sectors reliant on seasonal stock, price hikes may emerge in the next product cycle (a few months). For industries with faster turnover or more frequent imports, the impact may be felt sooner. Predicting the exact timing is difficult, as much depends on how tariffs develop and how competitors absorb or respond to the costs.

“Tariff increases can also create ripple effects, where other industries or countries adjust pricing in response to shifts in global trade flows. This may delay or moderate the impact on consumers depending on market conditions. In some cases, it could irritate customers and push them to seek better-priced alternatives.

“Ultimately, while some immediate price increases are likely, the broader effects—especially in markets heavily reliant on global supply chains—will probably take a few months to be fully felt, as businesses adjust their pricing structures.”